Publications

40*. Polley, B.R.W., Helmsedt, K.J., Longbottom, M., Mengersen, K. (2025). The influence of resource use on yield versus sale price trade-off in Australian vineyards. PLoS One, in press

39*. Holland, O., Stark, J., Wilson, K.A., Baker, C., Shaw, J.D., Helmstedt, K.J. (2025). Invasive species threaten catastrophic abundance reductions in East Antarctic coastal marine ecosystems. Journal of Applied Ecology, in press

38*. Saunders, K.R., Forbes, O., Hopf, J.K., Patterson, C.R., Vollert, S.A., Brown, K., Browning, R., Canizares, M., Cottrell, R.S., Li, L., Kim, C.J.S., Stewart, T.P., Susilawati, C., Zhao, X.Y., & Helmstedt, K.J. (2025). Data-driven recommendations for enhancing real-time natural hazard warnings. One Earth, in press

37. Dee, L. E., Miller, S. J., Helmstedt, K. J., Boersma, K. S., Polasky, S., & Reich, P. B. (2025). Quantifying disturbance effects on ecosystem services in a changing climate. Nature ecology & evolution, 1-12.

36*. Patterson, C. R., Helmstedt, K. J., Terauds, A., & Shaw, J. D. (2025). A multidimensional assessment of Antarctic terrestrial biological data. Diversity and Distributions, 31(1), e13909.

35. Holden, M. H., Akinlotan, M. D., Binley, A. D., Cho, F. H., Helmstedt, K. J., & Chadès, I. (2024). Why shouldn’t I collect more data? Reconciling disagreements between intuition and value of information analyses. Methods in Ecology and Evolution.

34. Albers, H. J., Chang, C. H., Dissanayake, S. T., Helmstedt, K. J. , Kroetz, K., Dilkina, B., … & Spencer, G. (2024). Anticipating anthropogenic threats in acquiring new protected areas. Conservation Biology, 38(2), e14176.

33. Holden, M. H., Plaganyi, E. E., Fulton, E. A., Campbell, A. B., Janes, R., Lovett, R. A., Lubiana Botelho, L., …, Helmstedt, K.J…. & Timms, L. (2024). Cost–benefit analysis of ecosystem modeling to support fisheries management. Journal of Fish Biology, early online

32*. Akinlotan, M. D., Warne, D. J., Helmstedt, K. J., Vollert, S. A., Chad`es, I., Heneghan, R. F., … & Adams, M. P. (2024). Beyond expected values: Making environmental decisions using value of information analysis when measurement outcome matters. Ecological Indicators, 160, 111828.

31. Dean, A.J., Eberhard, R., Baresi, U., Coggan, A., Deane, F., Hamman, E., Helmstedt, K.J., Loechel, B., Jarvis, D., Mayfield, H. & Stevens, L. (2023). Scrutinizing the impact of policy instruments on adoption of agricultural conservation practices using Bayesian expert models. Conservation Letters, p.e12988.

30*. Kekulthotuwage Don, S., Burrage, K., Helmstedt, K. J., & Burrage, P. M. (2023). Stability switching in Lotka-Volterra and Ricker-type predator-prey systems with arbitrary step size. Axioms, 12(4), 390.

29*. Lippmann, R.B., Helmstedt, K.J., Gibbs, M.T., & Corry, P. (2023). Optimising Facility Location and Sizing for Coral Aquaculture Production. PLoS One, 18 (3), e0282668

28*. Masoud, M., Hsieh, J., Helmstedt, K.J., Mcgree, J., & Corry, P. (2023). An integrated pasture biomass and beef cattle liveweight predictive model under weather forecast uncertainty: An application to Northern Australia. Food and Energy Security, e453

27*. Mayfield, H.J., Eberhard, R., Baker, C., Baresi, U., Bode, M., Coggan, A., … & Helmstedt, K.J. (2023). Designing an expert-led Bayesian network to understand interactions between policy instruments for adoption of eco-friendly farming practices. Environmental Science & Policy, 141, 11-22.

26. Macreadie, P. I., Robertson, A. I., Spinks, B., Adams, M. P., Atchison, J. M., Bell-James, J., … Helmstedt, K.J., … & Rogers, K. (2022). Operationalizing marketable blue carbon. One Earth, 5(5), 485-492.

25. Felipe-Lucia, M. R., Guerrero, A. M., Alexander, S. M., Ashander, J., Baggio, J. A., Barnes, M. L., …, Helmstedt, K.J., … & Dee, L. E. (2022). Conceptualizing ecosystem services using social–ecological networks. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 37(3), 211-222.

24. Eberhard, R., Coggan, A., Jarvis, D., Hamman, E., Taylor, B., Baresi, U., Vella, K., Dean, A.J., Deane, F., Helmstedt, K. & Mayfield, H. (2021). Understanding the effectiveness of policy instruments to encourage adoption of farming practices to improve water quality for the Great Barrier Reef. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 172,112793.

23*. Holloway-Brown, J., Helmstedt, K. J., & Mengersen, K. L. (2021). Interpolating missing land cover data using stochastic spatial random forests for improved change detection. Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation, 7(4), 649-665.

22*. Holloway-Brown, J., Helmstedt, K. J., & Mengersen, K. L. (2021). Spatial Random For- est (S-RF): A random forest approach for spatially interpolating missing land-cover data with multiple classes. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 42(10), 3756-3776.

21. Bergstrom, D. M., Wienecke, B. C., van den Hoff, J., Hughes, L., Lindenmayer, D. B., Ainsworth, T. D., …, Helmstedt, K.J., … & Shaw, J. D. (2021). Combating ecosystem collapse from the tropics to the Antarctic. Global change biology. 27 (9), 1692-1703.

20. Czaplinski, I., Turner, I. W., Helmstedt, K.J., Corry, P., & Mallet, D. G. (2021). Industry- based, transdisciplinary, complex problems as realistic settings for applying the M in STEM. International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology, 52(5), 653-668.

19*. Holloway-Brown, J., Helmstedt, K. J., & Mengersen, K. L. (2020). Stochastic spatial random forest (SS-RF) for interpolating probabilities of missing land cover data. Journal of Big Data, 7(1), 1-23.

18. Anthony, K. R., Helmstedt, K. J., Bay, L. K., Fidelman, P., Hussey, K. E., Lundgren, P., … & Schaffelke, B. (2020). Interventions to help coral reefs under global change: A complex decision challenge. PLoS One, 15(8), e0236399.

17. Costa, M. D., Gorddard, R., Fidelman, P., Helmstedt, K. J., Anthony, K. R., Wilson, K. A., & Beyer, H. L. (2020). Linking social and biophysical systems to inform long-term, strategic management of coral reefs. Pacific Conservation Biology, 27(2) 126-132.

16. Adams, M. P., Sisson, S. A., Helmstedt, K. J., Baker, C. M., Holden, M. H., Plein, M., Holloway, J., Mengersen, K., & McDonald-Madden, E. (2020). Informing management deci- sions for ecological networks, using dynamic models calibrated to noisy time-series data. Ecology Letters, 23(4), 607-619.

15. Butsic, V., Kuemmerle, T., Pallud, L., Helmstedt, K. J., Macchi, L., & Potts, M. D. (2020). Aligning biodiversity conservation and agricultural production in heterogeneous landscapes. Eco- logical Applications, 30(3), e02057.

14*. Holloway, J., Helmstedt, K. J., Mengersen, K., & Schmidt, M. (2019). A decision tree approach for spatially interpolating missing land cover data and classifying satellite images. Remote Sensing, 11(15), 1796.

13. Runge, C. A., Withey, J. C., Naugle, D. E., Fargione, J. E., Helmstedt, K. J., Larsen, A. E., … & Tack, J. D. (2019). Single species conservation as an umbrella for management of landscape threats. PloS one, 14(1), e0209619.

12. Runge, C. A., Plantinga, A. J., Larsen, A. E., Naugle, D. E., Helmstedt, K. J., Polasky, S., … & Martinuzzi, S. (2019). Unintended habitat loss on private land from grazing restrictions on public rangelands. Journal of Applied Ecology, 56(1), 52-62.

11*. Helmstedt, K.J. & Potts M.D. (2018). Valuable habitat and low deforestation can reduce biodiversity gains from development rights markets. Journal of Applied Ecology, 55(4), 1692- 1700.

10*. Helmstedt K.J., Larsen, A.E., Stokes, J.R., Potts, M.D. (2018) Innovating at the food, water, and energy interface. Journal of Environmental Management, 209, 17-22

9. Runge, C. A., Plantinga, A. J., Larsen, A. E., Naugle, D. E., Helmstedt, K. J., Polasky, S., Donnelly, L.P., Smith, J.T., Lark, T.J., Lawler, J.J., Martinuzzi, S., Fargione, J. (2018). Unintended habitat loss on private land from grazing restrictions on public rangelands. Journal of Applied Ecology, 56(1), 52-62.

8. McDonald, J., Helmstedt, K.J., Bode, M., McDonald-Madden, E., Coutts, S., Possingham, H.P. (2018) Improving private land conservation with outcome-based biodiversity payments. Journal of Applied Ecology, 55(3), 1476-1485

7. Coutts, S.R., Helmstedt, K.J., Bennett, J.R. (2018) Invasion lags: the stories we tell ourselves and our inability to infer process from pattern. Diversity and Distributions, 24(2), 244-251

6*. Helmstedt K.J., Possingham H.P. (2017) Costs are the key when scheduling reintroductions between multiple release sites, Animal Conservation, 20 (4), 331-340

5. Bellows, R., Thompson A., Helmstedt K.J., York R., Potts, M.D. (2016) Prescribed fire mortality in young conifer stands influenced by species, season, and sometimes pruning. Forest Ecology and Management, 376, 193-204

4*. Helmstedt K.J., Shaw J., Bode M., Terauds A., Robinson S., Springer K., Possingham H.P. (2016) Prioritizing eradication actions on islands: pristine is not perfect. Journal of Applied Ecology, 53(3), 733-741

3. Southwell D., Rhodes J.R., McDonald-Madden E., Nicol, S., Helmstedt K.J., McCarthy M. (2016) Abiotic and biotic interactions determine whether increased colonization is beneficial or detrimental to metapopulation management. Theoretical Population Biology, 109, 44-53

2*. Helmstedt, K.J., Bode, M., Brennan, K.E.C, Rhodes, J.R., Possingham, H.P. (2014). Cost- efficient fenced exclosures for conservation: large or small? Ecological Applications 24 (7), 1780- 1792.

1. Bode, M., Brennan, K.E.C., Helmstedt, K.J., Desmond, A., Smia, R., Algar, D. (2013). Interior fences can reduce cost and uncertainty when eradicating invasive species from large islands, Methods in Ecology and Evolution 4(9), 819-827.

Helmstedt K.J., Jagannathan, K.A., Larsen, A.E., Moreno, L.C., Ohnesorge, M.J., Sakaguchi, L., Siegner, A., Stokes, J.R., Potts, M.D. (2015) Designing Intelligent Food, Energy & Water Systems. US National Science Foundation Report (available here).

Helmstedt K.J. (2014) What to do when you outgrow your cage. In Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Environmental Decisions Annual Report.

Helmstedt, K.J. (2013). Are Two Fences Better Than One? Australasian Science Magazine. Jan/Feb 2013 issue (available here)

Helmstedt, K.J., Bode, M. (2012). Are Two Fences Better Than One? What do you do when you outgrow your cage?  Decision Point. Issue 64, October (available here)

Shaw, J., Bode, M., Helmstedt, K.J. (2012) Island Arks. Decision Point.  Issue 59, April (available here)

Theses

Helmstedt, K.J. (2010) Modelling Fractional Diffusion (Mathematics first class honours thesis, available here)

Helmstedt, K.J. (2015) Adding and subtracting species: the mathematics of eradication and reintroduction for conservation (PhD thesis. Available here, open access)